All eyes on battleground state Wisconsin as Republicans gather for national convention
On Saturday evening in downtown Milwaukee, people were making their way to dinner reservations and drinks with friends near Water Street, the city’s nightlife district.
But some of them had the U.S. election on their minds, as news of gunfire at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania spread and visitors descended on Wisconsin’s largest city for the Republican National Convention, which opens Monday.
“We were actually walking down and talking about how we’re really scared about these elections,” said 26-year-old Milwaukee resident Laura Hernandez.
Hernandez, who listed abortion rights, immigration and Israel’s war in Gaza as her top voting priorities, said she was first eligible to vote for president in 2016 — but she’s never liked her options.
“It’s been so exhausting. Every single year that I’ve been able to vote, I have to choose between two evils. And I feel like the same thing is happening this year, but even to a higher degree,” she said.
“So at the moment I’m indecisive. I’m not sure what I’m going to lean towards, come November.”
In the wake of the assassination attempt against Donald Trump, Republican strategist Chip Felkel says it’s important the Trump campaign takes a measured and restrained tone as the Republican National Convention gets underway in Milwaukee. ‘In a weird, ugly way, this is of great benefit to the mobilization of Trump supporters,’ he says.
Wisconsin is one of the most critical battleground states in this year’s U.S. election. For three decades, the Midwestern state was a brick in the “Blue Wall” — a term for states that reliably went to the Democrats from the ’90s into the early 2010s.
That streak ended dramatically in 2016 when Donald Trump notched a shock win, helping him secure a marginal victory over Hillary Clinton. While President Joe Biden reclaimed Wisconsin during the 2020 election, his win was also remarkably slim: He won by less than one percentage point.
In fact, the last six presidential elections have each been decided by a difference of some 25,000 votes in Wisconsin, which has 10 votes in the electoral college.
“There’s no reason to expect the state is moving away from that swing-state status and from a very close electorate,” said Charles Franklin, a political pollster and director of the Marquette Law School Poll.
With the next election looming, each campaign is placing its bets on Wisconsin, where small voting blocs and swing counties have the potential to sway what is now considered a “purple” state — one that could determine who will sit in the Oval Office come January 2025.
Why the stakes are high
Four years after the Democrats staged their convention in the city — albeit with in-person events curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic — Milwaukee will host Republican party officials and delegates at its Fiserv Forum this week.
As the GOP works to wrestle the state back from the Democrats, the RNC’s setting is no coincidence, said Jonathan Kasparek, a political history professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
“It is very much to appeal to those sort of on-the-fence, independent voters that are perhaps reluctantly Republican,” he said. “It’s really [about] trying to court those votes.”
Many of Wisconsin’s 72 counties have flipped allegiances during the past few presidential elections, ultimately changing the state’s political balance.
More than a third of them (23 in total) voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 — and they all flipped to Trump in 2016. Biden then won back two of those counties in 2020, securing the state for the Democrats.
In Milwaukee, voters who spoke with CBC News seemed to be reluctant about both of their options for this year. Josh Fager said that both Biden and Trump leave something to be desired.
“We need better candidates on both sides,” he told CBC News.
The urban, suburban and rural divide
Wisconsin has emerged as a purple state largely because “the dynamics set up between where the Republicans have strength and where the Democrats have strength [has] been shifting a lot in recent years,” said Kasparek.
Historically, Democrats have fared well in Wisconsin’s biggest cities, Madison and Milwaukee, while Republicans have done well in rural areas and suburban counties.
But some of the latter are becoming “less solidly Republican,” he said.
Trump had strong victories among voters in rural counties in 2016 and 2020. However, in some suburban counties like Ozaukee, Republican voters turned out in softer numbers during those two elections than they had in previous years.
Meanwhile, low voter turnout in Milwaukee and Madison can have wider implications at the state level, according to Franklin, the pollster.
Some attribute Clinton’s 2016 loss in Wisconsin to her not having visited the state at all in the run-up to the election. Biden has visited Wisconsin five times since January to shore up support, paying particular attention to urban areas.
As Franklin put it: “Who’s going to win is not a question at all in Milwaukee. But will it provide the extra votes that help tip the state to the Democrats?”
Brenda Hart-Richardson, a 74-year-old lifelong Milwaukee resident, said she’s sticking with Biden all the way.
She said she was embarrassed by Democrats who have called for the president to step aside due to concerns over his health.
“I would never go on a camping trip with them,” she said. “If I twisted my ankle, they’d leave me behind.”
The fight for Black voters
Nationally, Black voters still favour Biden to Trump overall, according to an Ipsos poll from June. But fewer Black voters say they’re absolutely certain that they’ll vote in this election, which could spell trouble for the Democrats among one of their key bases.
Biden has been losing steam with young Black voters in particular, according to a separate Ipsos poll from May.
While 2020 census data shows that more than 80 per cent of Wisconsin’s population is white, Biden has sought to reach Black voters in a state where voting-rights advocates have long said that people of colour encounter more hurdles at the ballot box.
Madison resident Isaac Montgomery, who was visiting Milwaukee with friends on Saturday evening, told CBC News that he didn’t vote in the last election and won’t vote in this one.
That’s because neither candidate is a good option for Black, Hispanic and Indigenous people, he said.
“People are always trying to use us as a trope. But they never really, at the end, do anything for us, so we’re always stuck in the same situation,” Montgomery said.
“Democratic, Republican, it doesn’t matter. Left, right, conservative, liberal. They’re all the same to me.”
Why turnout could be the deciding factor
Small voting blocs can make an outsized difference in a state with narrow margins, said Joe Paul, the executive director of Black Men Vote, a non-partisan organization that mobilizes Black male voters.
He pointed to the Black female vote in 2020, which helped tip the election in Biden’s favour.
“You saw them literally tip the scale. We’re talking about precincts — like, the last election came down to precincts,” Paul told CBC News. “This election will absolutely come down to precincts.”
Kasparek, the professor, noted that groups hit hardest by the economic woes of the last several years “might be discontented enough” to switch from Biden to Trump in the hopes that the economy will be stronger under the latter.
While the U.S. economy has recovered and unemployment is low, Americans have been worn down by years of high inflation. Most voters say the economy is their No. 1 issue, according to a national survey conducted by the Marquette Law School Poll in May.
Other priorities diverge along party lines; Republican voters list immigration as a high priority while Democrat voters emphasize abortion as a key issue, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 1,033 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
“I think the most important factor is actually going to be turnout,” said Kasparek. “Whichever party does a better job of getting its voters to the polls is going to prevail.”
Published at Mon, 15 Jul 2024 08:00:00 +0000
Can homelessness be ended? Prince William says yes — and he’s trying to get others to help
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He apologized for his raspy voice — a result of cheering on England the night before as it captured a spot in Sunday’s Euros 2024 soccer final — but Prince William was firm Thursday in his ongoing effort to promote a cause he has put at the heart of his philanthropic endeavours.
“Homelessness is a complex societal issue, and one that touches the lives of far too many people in our society,” he said.
“However, I truly believe that it can be ended.”
William was speaking at an event in London to mark the first anniversary of his Homewards initiative. The five-year program launched in 2023 by the Royal Foundation of the Prince and Princess of Wales aims to show that through coalitions of local organizations and charities working together, it’s possible to end homelessness, “making it rare, brief and unrepeated.”
William’s interest in the issue is longstanding — his late mother, Diana, Princess of Wales, took him to a shelter as a child. He has been patron of Centrepoint, a charity that focuses on ending youth homelessness, since 2005.
There’s no doubt it’s a significant problem. Data shows Britain has the worst rate of homelessness in the developed world, and it has become worse since 2010.
William’s interest also reflects the way in which he and his wife, Catherine, Princess of Wales, have concentrated their philanthropic efforts, seeking to draw people together to work in a limited number of areas — early childhood development, conservation and mental health among them — rather than cast a wider net on a larger range of issues.
“This is what they’ve done through the Royal Foundation — to focus on one or two particular causes and really try and drive some work and activity in that area. And in a sense, homelessness was a natural choice,” said Craig Prescott, a constitutional expert and lecturer in law at Royal Holloway, University of London, in an interview.
In trying to draw people together in such a way, there is precedent, as William’s father, King Charles, when Prince of Wales, also tried to bring people together to tackle issues of the day.
“In a sense [William is] following on from his father and using the convening power … to get different agencies and organizations who are involved in homelessness talking to one another and coming up with solutions,” Prescott said.
“If there’s some take-up from central government, then great. But it’s something for them to take up rather than for William to tell them to do it.”
It would become problematic if a royal were seen to be urging politicians to take specific actions.
Prescott noted that Diana was criticized for appearing on stage with a Labour Party politician and saying something must be done about homelessness.
“This was criticized for being political, and in a political sort of context as well. She was on the platform with politicians, and I think that’s one clue that I don’t think we’ll be seeing many politicians at these events, if any, I would imagine.”
Even royal involvement with an issue such as homelessness has drawn criticism.
The anti-monarchy group Republic has often spoken out against William’s actions.
“The monarchy represents and helps to perpetuate the very inequality that causes the housing crisis to persist. William is part of the problem, and his efforts at promoting himself through limited involvement in homelessness charities needs to stop,” Republic CEO Graham Smith said earlier this year, when plans were announced to build homes for homeless people on William’s Duchy of Cornwall estate in southwestern England.
“Rather than be thankful for a few homes built on Duchy land, which William will profit from, we all need to be demanding the return of the Duchy to full public ownership and an end to the monarchy.”
Royal interest in social issues around housing and homelessness has a long history.
Prince Albert, Queen Victoria’s husband, was the first president of the Society for Improving the Condition of the Labouring Classes. Through Albert’s patronage, the society showed model housing for the working classes at the Great Exhibition of 1851.
“It’s not unprecedented. Even Edward VII, when Prince of Wales, was a member of two royal commissions, one on the housing of the poor and the other one on the treatment of the elderly,” said Bob Morris, a member of the honorary staff of the constitution unit at University College London, in an interview.
“He attended pretty regularly and when his turn came, asked some sharp and well-informed questions and signed at least one of the royal commission reports, if not the other.”
William’s Homewards initiative has been working in six U.K. locations to form local coalitions.
“Homewards has already established strong foundations, forming wide-ranging local groups of organizations and individuals and focusing minds on measures to prevent people from becoming homeless,” Matt Downie, chief executive of Crisis, a charity for people experiencing homelessness and a partner in the Homewards initiative, said in a release.
“Crucially, Homewards has sought to put people with lived experience at the heart of its work.”
Still, William acknowledged Thursday there is a long road ahead.
“I created Homewards because I wanted us to look at the issue of homelessness through a different lens: to inspire a movement to prevent people from ever experiencing homelessness in the first place,” he said.
“I know this will take a huge effort. And I know that demonstrating that homelessness is not an inevitable part of our society will take time.”
But in the year since Homewards was set up, he said there has been “an incredible amount of work done” to build foundations for success.
“Coalitions have been built, bringing together over 500 individuals and organizations who are setting ambitious priorities and co-developing new ways of addressing homelessness that are local, relevant and collaborative — something that has never been done before on this scale,” he said.
“Already, a pipeline of nearly 100 homes is being established through the innovative housing projects which will be developed in each location — and believe me — my ambitions alone mean there will be so many more.”
He said there is a lot more work to do.
“The energy and enthusiasm that each individual and organization is bringing to the program, and to showing that it is possible to end homelessness in their local area, is inspiring and I know, together, we can do this.”
Here comes another prime minister
In Queen Elizabeth’s 70 years as monarch, she saw 15 British prime ministers come and go from their weekly audiences with her.
Less than two years into his reign, King Charles is now on to his third prime minister, after the British election on July 4 saw the Labour Party trounce Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives. (Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, lasted a mere 49 days as PM.)
Labour Leader Keir Starmer made the traditional post-election trip to meet the monarch on July 5, and in a ceremony known in palace parlance as the “kissing of hands,” officially became prime minister.
“You must be utterly exhausted and nearly on your knees,” Charles said, in a short video clip the Royal Family posted to YouTube of the moment the King welcomed Starmer to the palace.
“Not much sleep,” Starmer replied.
“Anyway, you’re here,” Charles said.
“It’s a very, sort of, quick changeover, isn’t it?” said Starmer.
“To say the least. And having to get to grips with everything straight away must be quite exhausting,” the King said.
Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party defeated the ruling Conservatives in a general election, met with King Charles on Friday.
The video offered a rare glimpse of a monarch and the prime minister chatting with one another at Buckingham Palace, and stands in stark contrast to what is publicly known about what is said during the regular weekly audiences.
“No notes are taken of that,” Morris said. “We don’t know what goes on in those meetings, but it’s been valued by prime ministers in the past because you’re talking to a [person] who is not your political competitor and you can unburden yourself a bit.”
Some media attention in recent days dusted off details of Starmer as a younger man calling for the abolition of the monarchy.
Starmer has reportedly described that as a youthful indiscretion, and since then has, as Morris noted, accepted a knighthood (from Charles in 2014).
“You will certainly not find anything in the Labour manifesto about abolition of the monarchy,” Morris said.
Speculation swirled throughout Elizabeth’s reign about how she and her prime ministers got along, and which ones were more — or less — in royal favour.
“As Queen Elizabeth matured, then of course she had things that she could say from our own experience to prime ministers…. She tended to be keener on the Commonwealth than her prime ministers,” Morris said. “There were some occasions when she clashed with a prime minister, but usually found a way of circumventing them.”
But arguably, said Prescott, it’s in the monarchy’s interest to be on good terms with the prime minister of the day.
“I think you … saw where the prime minister could be useful to the monarchy in those days after the death of Princess Diana, where it was people from Downing Street … as well as [Prime Minister Tony] Blair himself, who moved things on in that week …. and when perhaps the Queen, for good reason, sort of wasn’t playing her role as head of nation, to some extent, Blair stepped in, but then realized that there was stuff that the Queen had to do and advised her accordingly.
“So I think it shows you how it sort of goes both ways, the relationship between the prime minister and the monarch.”
Elizabeth was heavily criticized for not responding publicly immediately after Diana’s death, but days later did deliver a heartfelt speech on TV, expressing admiration for her former daughter-in-law.
Prescott will also be watching for any signals Starmer’s government may send via King Charles and the Royal Family when it comes to foreign policy, particularly around state and official visits.
“You might see a reorientation of that. It was very clear that the Conservative government used the Royal Family with more state visits in Europe post-Brexit,” he said.
“And of course the King’s first visits were to France and Germany, which was a very clear signal.”
Next Wednesday, however, will see Charles taking part in a significant ceremony much closer to home: the state opening of the new Parliament.
He will deliver the King’s Speech, which will outline the policies and proposed legislation from Starmer’s government for the next session of Parliament.
Princess Anne returns
Princess Anne returned to public duties on Friday, nearly three weeks after she suffered a head injury at her estate in western England.
Anne, an avid equestrian and longtime patron of the Riding for the Disabled Association, visited the group’s national championships, which took place not far from her home.
Michael Bishop, RDA’s chief executive, said the organization was “delighted that she has chosen to join us as she returns to royal duties.”
Anne, 73, became the group’s patron in 1971, and its president in 1986.
King Charles’s sister spent five nights in hospital after suffering a head injury on June 23. The exact cause of the injury was unconfirmed, but her medical team said the injuries were consistent with the potential impact from a horse’s head and legs.
The injury led Anne to cancel a planned trip to Canada that was to begin on June 30 and include a ceremony to commemorate the centennial of the Newfoundland National War Memorial in St. John’s.
Princess Anne has had to postpone numerous upcoming events, including a trip to Newfoundland, after suffering a concussion and other injuries from reportedly being struck by a horse’s head or legs.
Gov. Gen. Mary Simon read a message on Anne’s behalf that described her “deep regret” at being unable to attend.
The visit would have been Anne’s second to Canada within a matter of weeks. In early May, she was in British Columbia, where her engagements included time with the Victoria Therapeutic Riding Association.
— With files from CBC News
Royally quotable
“It’s a bit of nostalgia for me.”
— Prince William, during a visit to the air base where he served in the Royal Air Force between 2010 and 2013.
Royal reads
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Sabrina Cohen-Hatton has gone from rough sleeping as a teenager to visiting the Prince of Wales in Windsor Castle to give him advice on tackling homelessness. [BBC]
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Prince Harry paid an emotional tribute to the global veteran community as he accepted the Pat Tillman Award for Service at the ESPY Awards in Los Angeles. [Newsweek]
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King Charles has upset the pigeon racing community after dropping the monarchy’s official support amid opposition from animal rights activists. [The Guardian]
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A nine-year-old double amputee who missed a garden party at Buckingham Palace because of a traffic jam attended a private gathering with Queen Camilla. [BBC]
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King Charles bumped fists and learned new handshakes in a meeting with the West Indies cricket team. [ITV]
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Published at Sun, 14 Jul 2024 08:00:00 +0000