Recent deadly strikes on ships in Black Sea could scare away commercial traffic, warn analysts
After three cargo ships were hit in Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian ports this week, killing at least 10 and injuring several others, maritime analysts are warning that ship operators could start refusing to transit that stretch of the Black Sea due to the increased threat.
“If attacks continue, it will eventually force some of the companies to review the policy of calling at Ukraine,” said Tomas Alexa, lead analyst for Europe with Ambrey, a firm that assesses and manages maritime risk.
“It seems that there is a change in modus operandi [for Russia] … there’s a green light in attacking directly the ships in port.”
As a result of the strikes, which were carried out over five days this week, war risk insurance premiums — a fee shippers must pay when they cross through high-risk areas — have increased in this section of the Black Sea by as much as 30 per cent, Alexa said.
Russian officials, along with some state-affiliated media, have claimed the ships were targeted because they were carrying ammunition and military equipment.
Ukraine, and at least one of the shippers, denies these claims, saying all of the vessels were exporting commercial goods.
Could harm ability to export
Ukraine worries this could erode its ability to export its agricultural products, including grain and corn, along a temporary export corridor.
After Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey that set up a humanitarian shipping corridor, Ukraine established its own temporary route.
Instead of crossing the sea directly, the vessels now hug the coastlines of two NATO countries, Bulgaria and Romania, as they make their way to Ukrainian ports.
Three different ports were hit during this week’s attacks.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence said it targeted a cargo ship at Pivdennyi, Ukraine, on Oct. 6, because it claimed the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged vessel was carrying ammunition supplies from Europe.
The ministry released a grainy black and white video that appeared to be taken from a surveillance drone and claimed the footage showed a large explosion, the result of ammunition detonating.
Ukraine denies these claims and says the ship was carrying 6,000 tonnes of corn.
The ship, Paresa, is owned by AK Shipping, a company based in Greece.
Syrian, Indian nationals on board with Ukrainians
Tradewinds, a publication focused on global shipping, spoke to the company’s owner, who denied Russia’s claims and provided documents that showed it was contracted to carry Ukrainian grain in October on behalf of Swiss clients.
Russia does “such despicable things as attacking civilian infrastructure and is not afraid to directly attack ships flying foreign flags,” said Oleksandr Kharlov, first deputy head of the Odesa regional military administration, in an interview with CBC News.
“Unfortunately, our citizens, port infrastructure workers … who have nothing to do with military affairs or the defence of our country, are dying.”
All of the victims killed in the attacks were Ukrainian citizens, but among the wounded were nationals from Syria and India, who were working on board the ship Optima, which was damaged in an Oct. 7 attack on the port of Odesa.
The third attack hit the port of Chornomorsk on Oct. 9.
In that strike, a Panamanian-flagged container ship, the Shui Spirit, sustained damage, and at least 10 Ukrainians were killed.
The city of Odesa marked a day of mourning on Friday not only to honour the victims in the port strikes, but four who were killed in a building hit by a Russian strike on Thursday night.
No media access to port
Media access hasn’t been granted to the Odesa ports after the attacks, but Ukrainian officials have released photos they say show the aftermath and prove that Russia was targeting civilian infrastructure.
One of the pictures shows destroyed shipping containers, and what look like boxes of Christmas ornaments scattered on the ground.
Alexa says while his analytics firm can’t completely rule out that the ships are involved in weapons delivery, there is no proof from Russia that they were.
“Our argument is that Russia has decided that they have to really curb the amount of vessels calling Ukraine,” he said.
Ukraine, which is one of the world’s major growers of wheat and corn and a major supplier of sunflower oil, has been able to ramp up its exports using the temporary Black Sea route, which is a crucial revenue source for Kyiv.
But Alexa says these recent attacks will likely make some shippers transiting the route more wary.
Similar risk for Russia-controlled ports
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022, there have been cases where ships have switched crews before entering the Black Sea, as some on board didn’t want to make the journey.
Alexa says companies that have already left the area but are considering returning to it may choose to postpone their plans for now.
In a risk briefing, Ambrey concluded these recent attacks mean there’s also a heightened threat to vessels operating in areas and ports occupied by Russia, because of the possibility that Ukraine could retaliate.
The briefing states that Russia could keep targeting commercial vessels using the pretext that they are supplying weapons.
It suggests the only way to counter such claims would be to allow Russian forces to inspect vessels, as they did under the UN-backed Humanitarian Grain Corridor, a measure Ukraine is unlikely to agree to.
Published at Fri, 11 Oct 2024 18:53:37 +0000
Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo, organization of atomic bomb survivors, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
The Japanese grass roots group Nihon Hidankyo, comprised of survivors of Second World War atomic bombings, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on Friday.
The committee said the award given to the group, also known as Hibakusha after the Japanese word referring to survivors of the bombing of the Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki, was timely given what it said were “alarming” and increasing threats to wield nuclear power in war.
“Hibakusha is receiving the Peace Prize for its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons and for demonstrating through witness testimony that nuclear weapons must never be used again,” the Norwegian Nobel Committee said in its citation.
The world’s first atomic bomb destroyed Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, killing an estimated 140,000 people between the initial blast and the following months. Three days later, the U.S. forces dropped a second nuclear bomb, on Nagasaki, killing another 70,000 people, according to estimates. Japan surrendered on Aug. 15.
‘I can’t believe it’s real’: group’s co-chair
“I can’t believe it’s real,” Nihon Hidankyo co-chair Toshiyuki Mimaki told a press conference in Hiroshima, as he held back tears and pinched his cheek.
Mimaki, a survivor himself, said the award would give a major boost to the group’s efforts to demonstrate that the abolition of nuclear weapons was possible.
“[The win] will be a great force to appeal to the world that the abolition of nuclear weapons and everlasting peace can be achieved,” he said. “Nuclear weapons should absolutely be abolished.”
Witnesses to the only two nuclear bombs ever to be used in conflict have dedicated their lives to the struggle for a nuclear-free world, with the group founded in 1956.
“The Hibakusha help us to describe the indescribable, to think the unthinkable, and to somehow grasp the incomprehensible pain and suffering caused by nuclear weapons,” the committee said.
Nihon Hidankyo head Toshiyuki Mimaki told a news conference in Hiroshima that the prize as an encouraging sign for the disarmament movement.
“It would be a great force to appeal to the world that the abolition of nuclear weapons can be achieved,” he said.
“Nuclear weapons should absolutely be abolished.”
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the honour was “extremely meaningful” for the country, in comments made while at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit (ASEAN) summit in Laos.
Several organizations have received prize recently
Without naming specific countries, Joergen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, warned that nuclear nations should not contemplate using their weapons.
“It is therefore alarming that today this taboo against the use of nuclear weapons is under pressure,” he said.
In 2011, Hidankyo’s members were forced to reckon not just with the past dangers of nuclear weapons but also the current risks related to nuclear energy when a tsunami triggered a meltdown at the Fukushima Daichi nuclear reactor, exposing thousands to radiation.
At the group’s subsequent assembly, most said that Hidankyo should call for a phasing out of nuclear power, according to an Associated Press report at the time, but others spoke of the key role nuclear energy held for Japan’s economy.
When it comes to the Peace Prize, groups and organizations have been honoured by the Nobel Committee with increasing frequency in the past 20 years, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (2005), the European Union (2012), the World Food Programme (2020) and Russia’s Memorial and Ukraine’s Centre for Civil Liberties, joint winners along with Belarussian human rights activist Ales Bialiatski in 2022.
The Nobel Committee has regularly put focus on the issue of nuclear weapons, most recently with its award to ICAN, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, which received the award in 2017.
Ceremony to be held Dec. 10
Past individual winners of the Peace Prize have included Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela and Malala Yousafzai. Last year’s the award went to Narges Mohammadi, the imprisoned activist who has campaigned for women’s rights and the abolition of the death penalty in Iran.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is comprised of five individuals and makes its decisions based on nominations that must be submitted by Jan. 31.
The committee seeks a consensus on its selection. If there is none, the decision is reached by majority vote.
British Canadian scientist Geoffrey Hinton, known as the godfather of AI, was announced as the winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics, along with American John Hopfield. The duo are being honoured for discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning within artificial neural networks.
Thousands of people can propose names: members of governments and parliaments; current heads of state; university professors of history, social sciences, law and philosophy; and former Nobel Peace Prize laureates, among others. This year, there are 286 nominees, although the full list will be locked in a vault for 50 years.
The Nobel prizes carry a cash award of 11 million Swedish kronor ($1.45 million Cdn).
The Nobel prizes are presented to the laureates on Dec. 10, the anniversary of Nobel’s death, in Oslo.
Published at Fri, 11 Oct 2024 09:08:41 +0000
