Trump’s return to White House spells uncertainty for U.S.-China relationship

Trump’s return to White House spells uncertainty for U.S.-China relationship

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is sure to be felt globally, including in China — one of the United States’ biggest trading partners and an emerging superpower on the world stage.

The uncertainty of the next few years could be seen in the response from Beijing.

As Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on his Nov. 5 election win, he also issued a warning, saying the two countries “gain from co-operation and lose from confrontation,” according to a post on X, formerly Twitter, from Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to Washington.

“There’s no formula,” said Lynette Ong, a distinguished professor in Chinese politics at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. “[Trump’s] brand is … a lack of predictability.”

During Trump’s first term as president after his election in 2016, the relationship between him and Xi began jovially but crumbled during the COVID-19 pandemic and an ensuing trade war. It wasn’t until November 2023 that relations began to normalize after Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden met in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit.

The incoming president, though, who won a sweeping victory over Kamala Harris a week ago, has repeatedly vowed to impose punishing tariffs of up to 60 per cent on imports from China, which would further disrupt the already weakened Chinese economy.

Geopolitical implications also loom for Trump’s second term, especially if he continues to withdraw from the international stage, putting Taiwan’s future in question.

“There’s definitely a lot of anxiety among businesses in China and also in Beijing among the leaders,” said Jia Wang, senior fellow and senior adviser at the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

Trade implications

The foremost, and likely most immediate concern, is the issue of trade, as Trump indicated in February in an interview with Fox News that he plans to slap 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports (along with a blanket 10 per cent tariff on all imports into the U.S.) — a blow to the world’s second-largest economy.

Not only are the rates higher than the tariff of up to 25 per cent levied during his first term, but China’s economy isn’t as resilient as it was during that period. Since the pandemic, there has been a downturn in the country’s real estate market with slumping home prices and sales, along with rising government debt and unemployment.

The Biden administration stayed the course, imposing a 100 per cent surtax on Chinese-made electric vehicles, 50 per cent on computer chips and 25 per cent on EV batteries, aluminum and steel. Canada matched the 100 per cent tariff this fall, to mixed reviews from analysts, and a 25 per cent surtax on steel and aluminum imports from China began on Oct. 15.

“There’s going to have to be more focus on the [Chinese] domestic economy,” said Han Shen Lin, who works in Shanghai as the China country director for Washington-based consultancy firm The Asia Group. 

Indeed, China has been trying to do just that. As recently as this past summer, officials like Premier Li Qiang said the country would focus on diversifying its markets and boosting domestic demand instead of relying on exports as trade tensions escalate globally. It has rolled out various stimulus measures in recent months.

Considering China exported in excess of $400 billion US worth of goods to the United States in 2023, according to the United States Census Bureau, focusing on consumption domestically won’t happen overnight.

“They will require a tremendous amount of consumer confidence,” the University of Alberta’s Wang said.

U.S. could turn inward

While China is attempting to transition its economy, the geopolitical landscape could also shift if Trump’s first term is any indication, potentially benefiting Beijing.

Under Trump, the U.S. withdrew from multiple international agreements, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the United Nations Human Rights Council.

If he continues to turn inward, there would be a shift in global governance, leaving a power vacuum that China could step up to fill with less resistance from a Western ally system led by the U.S.

“China could take this opportunity to make more friends or at least reduce rivals and enemies,” Wang said.

This is an undertaking that’s already underway, the latest example being a meeting in October between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping — the first in five years due to various border disputes. (India may have had its own reasons for the rapprochement.)

“We believe that the India-China relationship is very important, not only for our people but also for global peace, stability and progress,” Modi said in October. 

The Taiwan question 

According to Lin of The Asia Group, there could be an “atrophy of the alliance system.”

With that, China may also have an opportunity to assert its presence in its own sphere of influence, including in the Pacific, putting the future of Taiwan into question.

Under the “One China” policy, Beijing views Taiwan as part of the country, not an independent state, frequently touting “reunification.”

Although it has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the U.S. has unofficially maintained ties and commits to its defence.

In 2016, Trump famously drew ire from China after taking a phone call from then-Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen after winning the White House, becoming the first U.S. president (and president-elect) to speak to a Taiwanese leader since the 1970s.

In October, he told the Wall Street Journal that China would not dare provoke the Republican leader because President Xi Jinping knows he is “f–king crazy.”

However, on a recent episode of the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, Trump mused that Taiwan should pay Washington for its defence and routinely accused it on the campaign trail of stealing the U.S.’s semiconductor industry, threatening soaring tariffs.

Currently, analysts estimate that about 90 per cent of the world’s advanced chips are manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

Considering the lack of consistency and the president-elect’s previous non-interventionist stance, some say he could lose sight of the island as he focuses on the relationship with Beijing.

“He might forget [about defending Taiwan] completely,” the University of Toronto’s Ong said. “That will send a very kind of strong signal to China that Taiwan is up for grabs.”

This time around, Taiwan was quick to deny that its current president, Lai Ching-te, was going to make a similar phone call, a likely indicator of the fragility of the relationship this time around.

“I don’t think Taiwan has a lot of allies around the world aside from the United States, so it’s actually fairly weak,” Ong said.

At a routine press briefing following Trump’s election, officials with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that “China firmly opposes any form of official interaction between the United States and Taiwan.”

“The U.S. government should abide by the One China principle,” warned spokesperson Mao Ning. 

How does Canada factor in? 

With Trump in office, Beijing’s relationship with Ottawa may be put on the back burner as leaders manage their ties with the U.S.

However, there’s another outcome, according to Wang, who said the possibility of a weakened Canada-U.S. relationship and a more uncertain future could lead to China strengthening its ties outside of the Pacific region.

“Canada may also have an increased incentive to look elsewhere in the world,” she said.

Published at Tue, 12 Nov 2024 09:00:00 +0000

Top Trump White House pick has strong view on Canada’s government. It’s not flattering

The man reportedly tapped for the top international role inside the Trump White House isn’t just predicting the defeat of Canada’s Trudeau government: He’s celebrating it.

Mike Waltz has a vast digital footprint on international issues in his six years as a congressman, following careers in business, defence policy, and as a decorated special-forces veteran.

He’s been selected by Donald Trump for the powerful position of national security adviser in the next White House, a multitude of U.S. media outlets reported Monday evening, though Trump did not publicly comment on any of these reports.

His online commentary emphasizes his view that U.S. allies must pull their weight on security issues, including with regards to China, which he views as a serious national-security threat.

Waltz predicts Liberals will lose next election

His unflattering opinion of the Trudeau government is manifest in a string of social media comments over the years, including one happily predicting its demise in the next election.

Earlier this year, he posted a video from Canada’s question period where opposition leader Pierre Poilievre ridiculed Trudeau’s housing policies.

“This guy is going to send Trudeau packing in 2025 (finally) and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in,” Waltz posted on the X social media platform.

“His trolling of Trudeau’s nonsense worth a watch!”

Waltz’s criticisms of Trudeau were frequently related to China.

He called Trudeau shameful for abstaining from a vote on Chinese genocide of Muslim Uyghurs. He referred in different social media posts to China interfering in Canada’s elections. 

“This is a MASSIVE scandal,” he said in one post. 

He lamented Trudeau’s government allowing the sale of a lithium mine to a Chinese-state owned entity. This was two years ago, and Canada has since moved to boot those Chinese state owners from certain critical-minerals sites.

Waltz also complained about Chinese donors pledging $1 million to the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation and reportedly wanting to erect a statue of the first Chinese communist leader outside a Montreal university.

The Florida congressman has other connections to Canada.

His other Canadian connection: pipeline business

His wife, Julia Nesheiwat, is a vice president for Calgary-based TC Energy Corp.; it’s the energy company formerly known as TransCanada, builder of the ill-fated Keystone XL oil pipeline.

Waltz’s social media posts are now a window into a substantive reality awaiting Canada on Jan. 20, when the new administration takes office.

The Trump team is expected to press, aggressively, for allies including Canada to take defence spending and security more seriously.

This will unfold amid threats from Trump to punish all countries, including allies, with trade measures including a minimum 10 per cent tariff on imports.

Canada’s argument against those tariffs is expected to include the point that it is a contributor to U.S. security — as a supplier of oil, and potentially minerals, that lessen American dependence on overseas countries, including China.

It’s an argument Waltz would presumably know well — given his personal connection to TC Energy. 

Waltz also delivered a shoutout to former prime minister Stephen Harper at an international gathering of conservatives in 2022.

His comments about the next Canadian election point to another dynamic looming over the coming months: The question of whether Canada-U.S. talks on sensitive issues, like tariffs and defence spending, will happen mostly before or after Canada’s election. 

Waltz: NATO allies need to ‘step up’ defence spending

Waltz holds standard Republican views on some international issues.

He was passionately supportive of helping Ukraine, certainly in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion, but, as his party grew more skeptical, he echoed that sentiment.

He’s mocked NATO allies for doing the bare minimum in meeting defence spending commitments.

Waltz joked in one post about European countries meeting the two per cent spending target, saying it was like “congratulating the F student on getting a D. We need our allies to step up, instead of letting them off and making American taxpayers foot the bill!”

His track record of commenting on Canada dwarfs that of the rumoured next secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio.

In the past, Rubio has frequently mentioned working with Canada in a failed attempt to isolate Venezuela’s Maduro government.

That said, he did express his disgust with how warmly Trudeau eulogized Fidel Castro after the Cuban dictator’s death in 2016.

“Is this a real statement or a parody?” Rubio, a son of Cuban immigrants, tweeted at the time. “Because if this is a real statement from the PM of Canada it is shameful & embarrassing.”

Another nominee for a senior role is even better versed on Canadian issues.

Lawmaker Elise Stefanik, tapped to be Trump’s UN ambassador, serves in a border district in New York, is knowledgeable on cross-border files, and used to co-lead a congressional group focused on Canadian affairs before rising to national prominence as an aggressive Trump defender.

Published at Tue, 12 Nov 2024 03:55:49 +0000