Trump isn’t yet U.S. president, but his plans for the war in Ukraine loom large over G20
The G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, which begins on Monday, is already impacted by ever-evolving geopolitical events, regardless of host Brazil’s official theme of fighting hunger, poverty and inequality.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in Brazil on the heels of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru’s capital, where he conceded that many conversations with other nations were about preparing for a Donald Trump presidency and about what can be accomplished before he takes over the White House.
“I think there probably are elements of … accelerating certain things in the coming months for some,” Trudeau said at his closing news conference at the APEC summit.
The G20 will likely be no different, especially in light of multiple media reports that U.S. President Joe Biden has decided to lift restrictions on Ukraine so that it can now use weapons provided by the United States to strike deep into Russian territory. Multiple news reports say Ukraine plans to make use of this policy reversal and conduct its first long-range attacks sooner rather than later.
“While issues of defence security don’t necessarily figure prominently into the agendas … they can’t help but be connected, one way or another,” retired Canadian lieutenant-general Guy Thibault, chair of the Conference of Defence Associations Institute and former vice-chief of the defence staff, said in an interview with CBC News.
“Given what we’re seeing and the the concerns in terms of international insecurity that’s caused by conflict, [whether] it be the Middle East, whether Ukraine, whether it be … [what] we’re seeing in the Indo-Pacific, inevitably these will be discussed,” he said.
There is no guarantee Trump will not reverse Biden’s decision in two months when he takes office, considering the president-elect’s lukewarm support for Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in February 2022.
“Let’s … be very blunt. All the allies in the world would not be able to replace a complete withdrawal from supporting Ukraine by the United States,” Trudeau said.
That is the same challenge for any agreements made in Rio over the next two days. No one knows what will happen to those decisions on Jan. 20, when Trump is sworn in.
But even reaching consensus without Trump at the leaders’ table will be a challenge. The G20 — the largest 20 economies in the world — is a diverse group of friends, rivals and even enemies.
‘Escalation of tensions’
Canada’s relationship with China is strained — and not likely to improve any time soon with Trump coming to power in the U.S.
“The trade wars with China will be back,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.
“There will be escalation of tensions on issues around Taiwan … there will be a lot more volatility and unpredictability in the relationship. And Canada will need to watch that very closely because again, we can find ourselves caught in the middle.”
The federal government announced Wednesday it’s ordering TikTok to close its operations in Canada, but Canadians can still download and use the app. On Thursday, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said the federal government was ‘preoccupied by the activities of the corporate entity of TikTok Canada.’
Canada’s relationship with India is downright frosty. And then there’s how the Canadian government feels toward Russia.
“The level of trust that I have for Vladimir Putin is probably at an all-time low right now,” Trudeau said.
The Russian president will again not attend the G20 this year — relieving the host country of the awkward prospect of acting on an international warrant for Putin’s arrest. In his stead, Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov will represent Russia.
Trudeau has a number of one-on-one meetings scheduled with other leaders, including Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. The impending renegotiation of the free-trade agreement between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico will likely be top of mind, particularly after Trudeau did not rule out cutting Mexico out of talks if it doesn’t align its tariffs on China with those of Canada and the U.S.
Trudeau will also sit down with Biden on Monday, a meeting that could be reminiscent of the farewell-like chat the prime minister had with Barack Obama at the G20 in 2016, before Trump became president the first time.
Published at Mon, 18 Nov 2024 09:00:00 +0000
In major reversal, Biden reportedly OKs use of U.S. arms by Ukraine to strike inside Russia
The Kremlin said on Monday that if the United States allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike far into Russia then it would lead to a rise in tension and deepen the involvement of the United States in the conflict.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the outgoing administration of Joe Biden was adding fuel to the fire and seeking to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.
Reuters, citing two U.S. officials and a source familiar with the decision, reported on Sunday that the Biden administration has decided to allow Ukraine to make strikes with U.S.-made weapons deep into sovereign Russian territory.
Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns.
The move comes two months before president-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20 and follows months of pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to allow Ukraine’s military to use U.S. weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border.
“Today, many in the media are saying that we have received permission to take appropriate actions,” Zelenskyy said in a Sunday evening address.
“But strikes are not made with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.”
So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not responded, but on Monday, Russian lawmaker Maria Butina said Biden’s administration was risking a third world war if it had allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia.
“These guys, Biden’s administration, is trying to escalate the situation to the maximum while they still have power and are still in office,” Butina told Reuters.
Butina spent 15 months in a U.S. prison for acting as an unregistered Russian agent, and is now a lawmaker for the ruling United Russia party.
“I have a great hope that ([Donald] Trump will overcome this decision if this has been made because they are seriously risking the start of World War Three which is not in anybody’s interest.”
Some Ukrainians are expressing uneasiness that Donald Trump’s U.S. election win could mean an end to the country’s support against Russia. Trump has publicly criticized sending Ukraine billions in military aid, and has said he could make a deal to ‘end the war in a day.’
The change comes largely in response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the decision said.
The White House and the U.S. State Department declined to comment. The Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry and president’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Ukraine’s first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 306 kilometres, according to the sources.
While some U.S. officials have expressed skepticism that allowing long-range strikes will change the war’s overall trajectory, the decision could help Ukraine at a moment when Russian forces are making gains and possibly put Kyiv in a better negotiating position when and if ceasefire talks happen.
It is not clear if Trump will reverse Biden’s decision when he takes office. Trump has long criticized the scale of U.S. financial and military aid to Ukraine and has vowed to end the war quickly, without explaining how.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Western countries against supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles, saying NATO risks ‘war’ if they cross this red line. Andrew Rasiulis, a fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, joins Canada Tonight to break down Putin’s warning.
A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But one of his closest foreign policy advisers, Richard Grenell, criticized the decision.
“Escalating the wars before he leaves office,” Grenell said, in an X post responding to the news.
Some congressional Republicans had urged Biden to loosen the rules on how Ukraine can use U.S.-provided weapons.
Since Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory, senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they would use the remaining time to ensure Ukraine can fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a “position of strength.”
‘Way too late’
The U.S. believes more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to eastern Russia and that most of them have moved to the Kursk region and have begun to engage in combat operations.
Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said it had clashed with some of those North Korean troops deployed to Kursk.
Stretched by personnel shortages, Ukrainian forces have lost some of the ground they captured in an August incursion into Kursk that Zelenskyy said could serve as a bargaining chip.
“Removing targeting restrictions will allow the Ukrainians to stop fighting with one hand tied behind their back,” Alex Plitsas, senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said.
“However, like everything else, I believe history will say the decision came way too late. Just like the ATACMS, HIMARS, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Abrams Tanks and F-16. They were all needed much sooner,” he said.
Russia on Sunday launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine that targeted energy infrastructure and killed civilians. The attack came as fears mount about Moscow’s intentions to devastate Ukraine’s power generation capacity as winter approaches.
Despite Zelenskyy’s pleas, the White House had been reluctant to allow U.S.-supplied weapons to be used to strike targets deep inside Russia for fear this could escalate the conflict.
Kyiv’s other allies have been supplying weapons but with restrictions on how and when they can be used inside Russia, out of concern such strikes could prompt retaliation that draws NATO countries into the war or provokes a nuclear conflict.
Published at Sun, 17 Nov 2024 21:35:57 +0000