Trump names his tariff man. Here’s what he’s said and what it means for Canada
This item is part of Watching Washington, a regular dispatch from CBC News correspondents reporting on U.S. politics and developments that affect Canadians.
What’s new
Donald Trump now has a point man for his plan to impose punishing trade tariffs. Someone who’s publicly shared his views on them.
Howard Lutnick will now wield influence over an issue with major consequences over the global economy.
Trump hasn’t just nominated the Wall Street executive as his commerce secretary; he’s also put Lutnick in charge of his tariff and trade agenda, with an additional role overseeing the Office of U.S. Trade Representative.
American trading partners will eagerly study Lutnick’s views on Trump’s plan to slap a minimum fee of 10 per cent on all imports into the United States.
Lutnick’s public remarks on this issue might reassure them — to a point. In his telling, Trump doesn’t plan to impose tariffs on everything. His message, however, isn’t all sunny.
Few countries have as much riding on these details as Canada. Depending on how the tariffs are designed, there are vastly different estimates about how badly they will hurt Canada’s economy.
The federal government is bracing for trade disruption under a second Donald Trump presidency, with former secretary of commerce Wilbur Ross saying Trump will not only focus on tariffs, but target Canada’s supply management sectors during his second term.
What’s the context
According to different estimates, Trump’s tariff plan could cost Canada’s economy anywhere from a half-per cent of GDP to a devastating five per cent.
The level of damage depends on the details. Trump offered scant specifics during the campaign about how exactly his tariff plan would work.
Will tariffs apply to every country? To every product from every country? Or only to specific products where the U.S. has a strategic goal of reshoring jobs?
Lutnick has talked about how he’d apply them. In his view, they would serve two purposes. One is surgical, in order to influence specific industries. The other is as a negotiating club.
The United States has lower tariffs than almost any country, including Canada. Lutnick says this threat will force other countries to sit down with the U.S., and drop their trade barriers.
“Of course it’s a bargaining chip,” the CEO of the financial services giant Cantor Fitzgerald told CNBC during the campaign, during which he led Trump’s transition team.
“Everybody else is going to negotiate with us.”
During that interview over the summer, he said Trump’s plan was not actually to apply these tariffs willy-nilly, which would drive up the cost of products the U.S. is happy to import.
This would seem to diminish the likelihood of damage to Canada’s No. 1 export to the U.S.: energy, specifically oil, gas and hydropower.
In an exclusive interview, chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton speaks with Donald Trump’s former secretary of commerce, Wilbur Ross, about the U.S. president-elect’s agenda on trade and tariffs, and his advice for how Canada should respond.
What’s unclear is what it might do to Canada’s No. 2 export: Cars. Lutnick has discussed cars at length, in different interviews, although his comments never mentioned Canada.
He specifically mentioned European and Japanese tariffs and said the U.S. wants a more even playing field, to allow Ford and GM to sell more vehicles there.
In another interview with CNBC, Lutnick called for the U.S. to have similar tariffs to what it faces in Europe and Japan: “Equal, equal, equal.”
He said that if the U.S. threatens major import levies, Europe will panic at the thought of Mercedes, Porsche and BMW losing American sales and then, along with Japan, negotiate a fairer deal.
“And finally Ford and General Motors are going to be able to sell in these places,” Lutnick said.
He was later accused of misrepresenting basic facts about trade in his CNBC interviews. Lutnick had vastly exaggerated the level of tariffs in Europe and Japan and their role in U.S. auto sales.
But Lutnick has taken a more hawkish tone, recently.
In a lengthy podcast discussion last month, Lutnick described tariffs as one of the secrets of U.S. prosperity until the Second World War.
“You’ve got to tariff the rest of the world. Keep them the heck out. Bring the manufacturing back here,” he said.
One Washington trade expert told CBC News it’s unclear if Lutnick has technical understanding of these issues, and may rely on deputies, including at the Office of U.S. Trade Representative. He said Trump’s announcement might ultimately be inflating Lutnick’s role here.
“Trump’s characterization in his statement may be one of those things we should take seriously but not literally,” said Simon Lester, a former legal-affairs officer at the World Trade Organization.
What’s next
Trump’s major nominees will face confirmation hearings in the U.S. Senate. Lutnick’s will likely happen early next year, where he may elaborate on the next administration’s plans.
The key player here is Trump. There’s no public evidence Trump sees his own plan as primarily a negotiating tool, the way Lutnick described it to CNBC.
When talking about tariffs, Trump has used more punitive language; he’s threatened to target companies building plants in Mexico, to force them to build in the U.S. — which is an ominous message for countries in North America reliant on their free-trade pact with the U.S.
Trump’s associates were not reassuring, either, in meetings with Canadian officials during the campaign.
Now with the election over, and the new Trump team taking shape, those same Canadian officials, and businesses, will seek additional clarity.
It remains to be seen who else Trump might nominate to economic roles. For example, key trade officials in his first term, Robert Lighthizer and the trade hardliner Peter Navarro, have yet to have roles defined for his second administration.
As for what the U.S. might want from Canada if there’s a negotiation, here’s a handy guide. The U.S. publishes an annual list of gripes with trading partners. The Canada section spans four pages and mentions dairy, provincial liquor boards, broadcast access and taxes on large online platforms.
Trump is also expected to press Canada on military spending, and on how to interpret the automobile provisions of the existing North American trade deal.
Published at Fri, 01 Nov 2024 08:11:21 +0000
Ukraine accuses Russia of spreading fake warning of major air attack
Russia staged “a massive information-psychological attack” against Ukraine by spreading a fake warning, purportedly from Ukrainian military intelligence, about an imminent mass air attack, Kyiv’s top spy agency said on Wednesday.
“A message is being spread via messengers and social networks … about the threat of a ‘particularly massive’ missile and bomb strike on Ukrainian cities today,” the Main Directorate of Intelligence said in a statement.
“This message is a fake, it contains grammatical errors typical of Russian information and psychological operations.”
The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv announced it was shutting down Wednesday after receiving warning of a potentially “significant” Russian air attack and was closing “out of an abundance of caution.”
In a statement, the embassy also instructed employees to shelter in place and recommended that U.S. citizens in Ukraine’s capital be prepared to immediately shelter in the event of an air alert.
Ukraine: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv received specific information of a potential significant air attack on Nov 20. The Embassy will be closed and recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced. <a href=”https://t.co/ah0bpDfULK”>https://t.co/ah0bpDfULK</a> <a href=”https://t.co/m8cWXCXT2V”>pic.twitter.com/m8cWXCXT2V</a>
—@TravelGov
The Italian and Greek embassies in Kyiv said they had also closed their doors after the U.S. warning, while the French Embassy remained open but urged its citizens to be cautious. The German Embassy has “limited operations” in the city and will not be providing consular services until further notice, Germany’s Federal Foreign Office said.
The Canadian Embassy in the capital has “temporarily suspended in-person services due to the security situation,” said a government statement online.
The U.S. warning was unusual for its specificity as Russian air attacks have become a common, near-daily occurrence in Ukraine.
But it came one day after Moscow said U.S.-made longer range missiles had been used in a Ukrainian attack that struck a weapons warehouse in the Bryansk region after U.S. President Joe Biden authorized their use.
Russian President Vladimir lowered the threshold for using his nuclear arsenal, with a revised doctrine announced Tuesday permitting a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power. That could potentially include Ukrainian attacks backed by the U.S.
Western leaders dismissed the Russian move as an attempt to deter Ukraine’s allies from providing further support to Kyiv, but the escalating tension weighed on stock markets after Ukraine used American-made longer-range missiles known as ATACMS for the first time to strike a target inside Russia.
Putin said in September that if Western countries allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with their longer-range weapons, “it will mean that NATO countries, the U.S., European countries are at war with Russia.”
“And if it is the case, then, bearing in mind the change of the very essence of the conflict, we will be making appropriate decisions based on threats that will be posed to us,” Putin said.
American-supplied landmines approved
On Wednesday, U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Biden administration will allow Ukraine to use American-supplied anti-personnel landmines to help fight off Russian forces. Speaking to reporters during a trip to Laos, he said the shift in policy follows changing tactics by the Russians.
Austin said Russian ground troops are leading the movement on the battlefield, often without the extra protection of an armoured vehicle, so Ukraine has “a need for things that can help slow down that effort on the part of the Russians.”
Russia has recently escalated air attacks, launching complex combined drone and missile barrages to target energy infrastructure this week as temperatures begin to drop.
After nearly three years of bombardments, many Ukrainians welcome having the ability to strike back deeper into Russian territory as the U.S. is warned not to further escalate the war.
Military analysts say the U.S. decision on the range over which American-made missiles can be used isn’t expected to be a game-changer in the war, but it could help weaken the Russian war effort, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think-tank.
“Ukrainian long-range strikes against military objects within Russia’s rear are crucial for degrading Russian military capabilities throughout the theatre,” it said.
After confirming Ukraine struck Russian territory using long-range missiles provided by the U.S., the Kremlin announced it was lowering its threshold for using nuclear weapons.
Published at Wed, 20 Nov 2024 10:20:08 +0000
