As Syrians celebrate the demise of a tyrant, there may not be an obvious successor to take over
Among the many moments of celebration across Syria on Sunday, the scene at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus may be remembered as one of the most significant.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who led his opposition forces out of Idlib province and in just 11 days dealt the fatal blows that drove President Bashar al-Assad from office, stood in front of a cheering audience.
“This will be a new victory for the entire Islamic nation, this will be a new historic victory for the region,” al-Golani said as those in the crowd pumped their fists.
But precisely what al-Golani, 42, a one-time adherent to al-Qaeda whose group remains listed as a terrorist entity by many Western nations, has in mind for Syria — and whether he can retain control of the dynamic situation — are among the many unknowns now confronting Syrians.
Assad and his father before him ruled the country for more than 50 years, killing or imprisoning anyone who challenged the family dynasty.
Humanitarian groups say Assad’s forces murdered more than 300,000 opponents and imprisoned countless thousands more in the aftermath of the Arab Spring protests of 2011.
Even in cities such as Latakia, which remained loyal to Assad, there were celebrations, suggesting there is widespread relief that he is finally gone. But what kind of government or leader he should be replaced with was always going to be contentious.
Who takes over?
Al-Golani’s remarkable success at spearheading the military take-out of Assad’s Syrian Arab Army now puts him at the forefront of the people being talked about as a possible successor.
“I think it’s a new era,” said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst at the London School of Economics.
“Syria could go two ways. It could descend sadly and tragically into all-out social, political and ethnic violence or could basically begin the process of social healing.”
Whether al-Golani is positioning himself to be that healer remains to be seen, but already he’s shown himself to be adept at the kind of public relations the job would require.
In the hours after HTS seized Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, he reportedly issued orders that there were to be no recriminations against supporters of Assad, nor should minorities feel threatened.
In an interview with CNN, he wore a plain green military uniform devoid of any overt religious symbols, and said his only goal was to rid the country of Assad.
A social media post by HTS even referred to him by his given name, Ahmad Al-Shar’a, rather than by his nom de guerre.
Since 2017, al-Golani and HTS have ruled Syria’s Idlib province next to Turkey, controlling border check points, running a municipal-style government and carrying out de-facto international relations with countries such as Turkey.
Extremist roots
In his rare interviews, al-Golani has said he publicly cut ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and now focuses on governance, rather than plotting attacks on the West.
But some observers question whether he can translate his experience of governing a small pocket of Syria into the immensely more difficult task of running a complex country with all of its competing religions, ethnicities and political agendas.
“As the geographic scope of this expanded nationally, I think it will probably become more difficult for HTS and for al-Golani to realistically steer it,” said Sam Heller, a Beirut-based researcher for the think-tank Century International who has studied the area’s extremist groups.
“I wouldn’t assume that he’s going to be in control now.”
Heller said the speed of the collapse of Assad’s regime was so sudden and swift that al-Golani himself may have been surprised he ended up leading his forces into Damascus.
Initially, the offensive he launched from Idlib toward Aleppo appeared to be more of a strategic move to improve HTS’s front-line positions than a national movement of liberation.
“It’s hard to know what Golani’s bedrock principals are,” Heller said.
Others question whether his stated transformation away from jihadi ideology into a political moderate is truly sincere.
“When the Taliban took over Afghanistan in the 1990s, they promised exactly the same thing,” said Sajjan M. Gohel, international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.
“They promised peace, security, modernity, and then they ruled in a very draconian way. HTS is going to have to prove itself.”
Turkey’s win
The one foreign leader who appears to be in the strongest position to influence whatever happens next in Syria is Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish president has played the long game with Syria over many years, bankrolling and supplying military aid to opposition groups, as well as allowing more than three million Syrians who fled the civil war to shelter in Turkey.
As al-Golani’s troops swept south, many of the opposition groups backed by Turkey went with them.
“The Turks will try to consolidate or expand their influence in Syria,” said Heller, the Century International analyst.
“Their supreme interest in Syria has been the defeat of the PKK-linked SDF,” he said, referring to the Syrian Democratic Forces.
After the collapse of the Syrian government that ended the Assad family’s 50-year iron rule, there are concerns about what a ‘power vacuum’ could mean for the country, according Sajjan Gohel, international security director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation.
The PKK, or Kurdistan Workers’ Party, is a Kurdish separatist group considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and some Western governments, including Canada. It’s blamed for attacks on Turkish soldiers and civilians.
The United States backs the Syrian Democratic Forces, which Turkey claims is linked to the PKK. In one of the Biden administration’s first statements on the demise of Assad, a spokesperson indicated that support would remain, without any mention of Turkey.
Notably, as HTS and other opposition forces were closing in on the Syrian cities of Homs and Damascus, other Turkish-backed rebels went in the other direction to attack Kurdish positions in the north and east, including the northern city of Manbij.
While HTS’s links with Turkey are more nebulous, there have been multiple reports that Turkish military consultants helped with drone training, logistics and other support — suggesting that whatever faction eventually dominates in Damascus, it may be sympathetic to Turkey’s wishes.
Few contenders
As for other possible contenders to take over from Assad, few analysts who spoke to CBC News were willing to make a guess.
“I think the answer is probably no one. That’s my concern,” Heller said.
Others said the messaging al-Golani’s group sends over the next few days will be crucial.
“So far, we have seen about 400,000 displaced people from Aleppo and Hama and Homs,” said Gerges of the London School of Economics. “Reassuring the Syrian people that the rebels will not exact vengeance against the Syrian people, this could be really a major turning point for Syria.”
Gohel of the Asia-Pacific Foundation said the decisions Syrians will make in the days and months ahead are unprecedented for their country.
“In terms of what happens next, we are entering uncharted territory.”
Published at Sat, 07 Dec 2024 15:44:10 +0000
Attempt to impeach South Korean president fails as ruling party boycotts vote
A South Korean legislative push to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his short-lived imposition of martial law fell through on Saturday after most lawmakers from his conservative governing party boycotted the vote.
The defeat of the motion is expected to intensify public protests calling for Yoon’s ouster and deepen political chaos in South Korea, with a survey suggesting a majority of South Koreans support the president’s impeachment, but the leader of his own party said the president would effectively be excluded from his duties before eventually stepping down.
Yoon’s martial law declaration earlier this week drew criticism from his own ruling conservative party, but it is also determined to oppose Yoon’s impeachment apparently because it fears losing the presidency to liberals.
Impeaching Yoon required support from two-thirds of the National Assembly, or 200 of its 300 members. The opposition parties who brought the impeachment motion had 192 seats, but only three lawmakers from PPP participated in the vote. The motion was scrapped without ballot counting because the number of votes didn’t reach 200.
National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik called the result “very regrettable” and an embarrassing moment for the country’s democracy that has been closely watched by the world.
“The failure to hold a qualified vote on this matter means we were not even able to exercise the democratic procedure of deciding on a critical national issue,” he said.
Opposition parties could submit a new impeachment motion after a new parliamentary session opens next Wednesday.
South Korea’s main opposition Democratic Party said it would not give up its attempt to impeach Yoon. But Yoon’s People Power Party said it would find a “more orderly, responsible” way to resolve the crisis than impeachment of the president. Many experts say some ruling party lawmakers could eventually join opposition parties’ efforts to impeach Yoon if public demands for it grow further.
If Yoon is impeached, his powers will be suspended until the Constitutional Court decides whether to remove him from office. If he is removed, an election to replace him must take place within 60 days.
Members repeatedly called to vote
Woo repeatedly urged ruling party members to return to the chamber to participate in the vote, waiting several hours for them to come.
At one point, Democratic Party leaders visited a hall on the floor below the main chamber where PPP lawmakers were gathered, attempting to persuade them to vote. After being blocked from entering, they angrily accused the conservatives’ leadership of preventing its lawmakers from voting freely.
Earlier Saturday, Yoon issued a public apology over the martial law decree, saying he won’t shirk legal or political responsibility for the declaration and promising not to make another attempt to impose martial law. He said would leave it to his party to chart a course through the country’s political turmoil, “including matters related to my term in office.”
“The declaration of this martial law was made out of my desperation. But in the course of its implementation, it caused anxiety and inconveniences to the public. I feel very sorry over that and truly apologize to the people who must have been shocked a lot,” Yoon said.
Since taking office in 2022, Yoon has struggled to push his agenda through an opposition-controlled parliament and grappled with low approval ratings amid scandals involving himself and his wife.
In his martial law announcement on Tuesday night, Yoon called parliament a “den of criminals” bogging down state affairs and vowed to eliminate “shameless North Korea followers and anti-state forces.”
The turmoil resulting from Yoon’s bizarre and poorly-thought-out stunt has paralyzed South Korean politics and sparked alarm among key diplomatic partners like the U.S. and Japan.
Troops had encircled parliament building
Tuesday night saw special forces troops encircling the parliament building and army helicopters hovering over it, but the military withdrew after the National Assembly unanimously voted to overturn the decree, forcing Yoon to lift it before daybreak Wednesday. The declaration of martial law was the first of its kind in more than 40 years in South Korea. Eighteen lawmakers from the ruling party voted to reject Yoon’s martial law decree along with opposition lawmakers.
Yoon’s speech fuelled speculation that he and his party may push for a constitutional amendment to shorten his term, instead of accepting impeachment, as a way to ease public anger over the marital law and facilitate Yoon’s early exit from office.
Jeremy Chan, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, says South Korean President’s Yoon Suk Yeol’s tenure is likely at risk after lawmakers including members of his own party unanimously rejected his declaration of martial law. Yoon’s term was set to end in 2027, but he is likely to face direct impeachment articles in the coming weeks, Chan says.
Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, told reporters that Yoon’s speech was “greatly disappointing” and the only way forward is his immediate resignation or impeachment. His party called Yoon’s martial law “unconstitutional, illegal rebellion or coup.”
The passage of Yoon’s impeachment motion appeared more likely Friday when the chair of Yoon’s party called for his removal on Friday, but the party remained formally opposed to impeachment.
On Saturday, tens of thousands of people densely packed several blocks of roads leading up to the National Assembly, waving banners, shouting slogans and dancing and singing along to K-pop songs with lyrics changed to call for Yoon’s ouster.
Protesters also gathered in front of PPP’s headquarters near the Assembly, angrily shouting for its lawmakers to vote to impeach Yoon.
A smaller crowd of Yoon’s supporters, which still seemed to be in the thousands, rallied in separate streets in Seoul, decrying the impeachment attempt they saw as unconstitutional.
Lawmakers on Saturday first voted on a bill appointing a special prosecutor to investigate stock price manipulation allegations surrounding Yoon’s wife. Some lawmakers from Yoon’s party were seen leaving the hall after that vote, triggering angry shouts from opposition lawmakers.
On Friday, PPP chair Han Dong-hun, who criticized Yoon’s martial law declaration, said he had received intelligence that during the brief period of martial law Yoon ordered the country’s defence counterintelligence commander to arrest and detain unspecified key politicians based on accusations of “anti-state activities.”
Hong Jang-won, first deputy director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing Friday that Yoon had ordered him to help the defence counterintelligence unit to detain key politicians. The targeted politicians included Han, Lee and Woo, according to Kim Byung-kee, one of the lawmakers who attended the meeting.
The Defence Ministry said Friday it suspended three military commanders, including the head of the defence counterintelligence unit, over their involvement in enforcing martial law.
Vice-Defence Minister Kim Seon Ho has told parliament that Defence Minister Kim Yong Hyun ordered the deployment of troops to the National Assembly after Yoon imposed martial law. Opposition parties accused Kim Yong Hyun of recommending to Yoon to enforce martial law.
Kim resigned Thursday, and prosecutors imposed an overseas travel ban on him. He was then arrested on Sunday over his alleged role in Yoon’s declaration of martial law, prosecutors said.
The prosecution’s special investigative team said they seized his mobile phone after his arrest, it said in a brief statement to reporters. National police also raided Kim’s office on Sunday as part of an investigation into claims of treason.
Three minority opposition parties filed a complaint with the prosecution against Yoon, Kim and martial law commander Park An-su, accusing them of insurrection. If convicted, the crime of leading an insurrection is punishable by death or life imprisonment, with or without prison labour.
Published at Sat, 07 Dec 2024 13:33:06 +0000