Ukrainian drone tactics make their way to Kursk region, Russian military bloggers suggest
Kyiv has said little about its rapid entry into Russia’s Kursk region, only confirming involvement on Saturday.
It seemingly caught Moscow by surprise: In just days, Ukrainian forces have gained control of what army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has claimed to total 1,000 square kilometres of Russian soil, as of Monday.
How did it happen? While Kyiv has not elaborated, across the border in Russia, military commentators have been rumbling that Ukrainian forces skilfully used drones and jammers to limit Russia’s defences and break into Kursk.
Some outside observers say this view seems to make sense, while cautioning that those same commentators may only be able to see a slice of the wider picture.
“It does seem plausible,” said Samuel Bendett, an adviser with the Russia Studies program at CNA, a safety and security think-tank in Washington, D.C.
Soaring drone use
Drones have become increasingly critical to both Russia and Ukraine across nearly 30 months of all-out war in Ukraine. They are used everywhere — from the trenches of the front line, to the skies above interior areas of the two countries.
Ukraine, which has created a drone warfare-focused branch of its military, has used drones to destroy Russian tanks, hit warplanes and other military targets, in addition to using longer-range drone models to strike oil and gas facilities far beyond the border.
And it’s likewise felt the sting of Russian drones that have killed Ukrainian soldiers and civilians alike, and have damaged infrastructure including power plants.
For Ukraine, relying on technologies like drones has been a way for it to punch above its weight in its fight with Russia.
“We have everything to win the war against the Russian Federation. Everything to replace a person in the trench, at sea, in the air and underwater,” said Ivan Havryliuk, a deputy defence minister, in remarks reported by ABC News earlier this year.
Ukrainian forces heading into Russia’s Kursk region drove through a border checkpoint in Ukraine’s Sumy region on Tuesday. The crossing, which was previously under Russian control, was recently recaptured by Ukraine.
Along the front line, troops from both sides are constrained by the hovering threat of the drones above. Small, first-person view (FPV) drones are routinely used to hunt individual soldiers.
Yet these same obstacles did not stop Ukraine from advancing into Kursk, raising the question of how.
A handful of published reports — some citing the observations of Russian war bloggers — suggests that Ukraine used drones and signal-jamming devices to down Russian surveillance capabilities and then attack the ground ahead, as Ukraine’s own troops made their advance.
Bendett said it’s not a surprise that Ukraine would be using such approaches. He, along with others, saw other factors beyond drones as being key to Kyiv’s early success in Kursk, such as operational secrecy and the element of surprise. However, he said, the technology is something that Ukraine has been developing, testing and ultimately competing with Russia on.
“We know Ukraine are ahead of Russia, when it comes to developing [these] tactics and techniques,” he said.
Journalist David Axe, who has been covering the conflict, sees Ukraine putting a new spin on an old method in Kursk.
“It’s a creeping barrage of jammers and drones,” Axe wrote in his newsletter Trench Art.
That’s not to say Russia has not been fighting back: A report from The Economist quotes Ukrainian soldiers describing “a demonic buzz” in the skies above Kursk, as both Russian planes and drones soared above them.
Knowing when and where to strike
Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, said that some details have been leaking to the media since the Kursk offensive got underway last week.
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While not privy to operational details himself, Goncharenko says it’s clear the military action was carefully planned.
“I understand that you need to attack places where you wouldn’t expect it,” he told CBC News in an emailed statement. “That’s what the Ukrainian Armed Forces did. If we used new tactics and new technologies, that’s definitely a plus.”
Several observers who spoke to CBC News noted that the part of the border where Ukraine launched its offensive was not well defended.
“They weren’t the most high-quality units,” said John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think-tank.
Add in the fact that the incursion may not have been expected — though a New York Times report suggests Russian military leaders didn’t act on a warning about a potential attack — and you can see how the wheels could be set in motion for a successful result.
“[Ukraine] achieved a significant element of surprise in the early days of the offensive,” said Hardie, who predicted that Russia’s defensive efforts “will become more coherent” in the days ahead.
Bigger questions beyond Kursk
Would Ukraine’s approach have worked as well in an area where Russia had more experienced troops? That’s an open question, said CNA’s Bendett.
And whether it can happen again will depend on Russia’s ability to come up with counter-measures against the tactics used in Kursk, he said.
Nick Reynolds, a research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in the U.K., is skeptical of the significance of drones and electronic warfare to the events in Kursk.
He said via email that it’s unclear how much planning was needed for the Kursk offensive, and also to what degree Ukraine has been able to integrate its drone-and-jamming tactics with planned manoeuvres.
It also remains to be seen if Ukraine can repeat “the same effects when they are not conducting a meticulously pre-planned operation.”
Published at Wed, 14 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000
Disney’s betting big on bad guys to bring fans back to its theme parks
A new area dedicated to Disney villains will bring a pinch of darkness to an expanded Magic Kingdom at Walt Disney World, as the company injects billions into its theme parks.
Villains Land is among the new projects coming to the Orlando, Fla., park amid sagging attendance numbers that are also squeezing its competitors.
Few details were released about what attractions will be in Villains Land, save for a menacing looking concept image on the official Disney Parks Blog that teases “A place where poison apples are aplenty and magic potions can ruin your whole day.” Other major changes announced on the weekend include Cars Land — featuring the anthropomorphic vehicles from the popular animated films — which will transform the longstanding Frontierland, replacing Tom Sawyer Island and the Rivers of America.
Disney also announced four new themed cruise ships and several additions to California’s Disneyland, all part of a $60 billion US investment over 10 years that the company previously announced in April for its parks, cruises and experiences.
Disney saw lower than expected revenue from its theme parks in its last quarter, ending June 29, reporting an increase of two per cent from the previous year and a decline of three per cent in operating profit.
Since the end of June, fans and bloggers have said Walt Disney World has seemed unusually empty on typically busy summer days.
According to the New York Times, the company’s CFO Hugh Johnston said on a conference call earlier this month that lower-income consumers are “feeling a bit of stress,” while higher-income consumers are travelling more internationally.
People looking for cheaper options
Disney’s announcement comes as economists say American consumers, fed up with a three-year inflation spike, are driving inflation down by increasingly seeking cheaper products and services, searching for bargains or just avoiding items they deem too expensive.
Len Testa, co-author of The Unofficial Guide to Walt Disney World and president of TouringPlans.com, a company that compiles theme park data and surveys Disney guests, says Disney was facing a “money crunch” after making major purchases before the pandemic, including buying the Fox film library for $71.3 Billion US and launching the Disney+ streaming service.
The company has since hiked prices at Disney World and introduced new fees for things like reserving spots on popular rides. Their newest service, Lightning Lane, allows customers to reserve spots before their day in the park, but the prices may change from day to day.
“Coming out of the pandemic, Disney started charging people money — a lot of money — for things that used to be free,” Testa said, explaining that families can now spend a couple hundred dollars a day to get ride reservations, a service that cost nothing a few years ago.
“The bargain that we’ve all unofficially had with Disney is we pay a premium for your products, and in return, you build things on a regular basis. And for the last few years, Disney has not kept up that end of the bargain.”
And the discontent fans are feeling isn’t limited to just the rides.
The number of the park’s four- and five-star reviews on Yelp have dropped from almost 52 per cent in 2019 to 33 per cent in 2022, according to Bloomberg, with customers complaining about long lines, expensive food and rude employees.
Jarrett Vaughan, an adjunct professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business, says patrons are frustrated with the higher costs of visiting the theme parks.�
“Middle class people who are going there are mostly going in debt to go there,” he said. “If you’re flying there with hotels, you’ve got a couple kids in your family, it’s probably like an $8,000 or $10,000 vacation, which is really expensive for five days or four days.”
Fans flocked to Anaheim, Calif., last weekend for D23, Disney’s annual convention that showcased the latest announcements in theme parks, TV, movies and merchandise from the company.
Competitor Universal readies new park
Disney has started to pull back on its price hikes, adding some discounted ticket packages and cheaper hotels in the off season.
Drew Smith, a content creator also known as Drew the Disney Dude, told CBC he is confident the new investments will, in time, draw back some visitors who have given up on Walt Disney World.
“I think that this team has heard our feedback,” said Smith, who posts about Disney parks on platforms such as Youtube and Instagram.
But Walt Disney World’s main competitor is a step ahead in ramping up its attractions.
Universal Orlando Florida is planning to open its Epic Universe park next year, with new attractions based on Harry Potter, Nintendo, How to Train Your Dragon and classic monster movies like Dracula and Frankenstein.
Universal is also fighting to win back customers, after facing an even bigger drop in theme park revenue than Disney. Its parent company, Comcast, posted that its theme park business revenue shrank $1.98 billion US in the second quarter of 2024, a 10.6 per cent dip compared to the same quarter in 2023.
Vaughan says these attendance drops are part of a trend affecting tourism experiences across the board, including where he lives in B.C.
Tourism operators elsewhere in Canada have also reported struggles this year.
Royal Bank of Canada said in June that surging inflation has meant travellers are paying more and getting less, and tourism in Canada in 2023 remained about 10 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
According to Vaughan of UBC, there’s a widely accepted view that tourism operators are pricing too aggressively due to the mistaken believe that inflation is stable and the economy is “still on fire.” Instead, he suggested the public is looking for more reasonably priced options comparable to what they saw before the pandemic.
“People can’t afford to do these types of things anymore,” he said.
Published at Wed, 14 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000
