When will we know the U.S. election winner? Maybe a minute past midnight
Many millions of eyes around the world could find themselves glued to data emerging from Pennsylvania sometime around midnight eastern time on U.S. election night.
It comes down to the math of presidential elections — and how the pandemic has permanently altered it by popularizing mail-in voting, especially among Democrats.
Nowadays, predicting the winner requires factoring in results from both mail-in and in-person ballots, along with how many of each remain uncounted.
It so happens that Pennsylvania, the state that’s probably most critical to crowning the winner, has a law requiring the vast majority of its counties to publish some mail-ballot statistics by 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 6.
Election-data eggheads will then plug those stats into spreadsheets and calculate the likelihood of either candidate emerging victorious in that vital state.
By that point, we should already have a sense of who the frontrunner is, courtesy of two southeastern swing states: Georgia and North Carolina.
The polls close in Georgia at 7 p.m. ET and in North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. ET, and both states have laws that should enable timely processing of mail ballots.
A top election-data analyst expects to have a good idea who’s won those southern states sometime between 10 p.m. and 11:30 p.m., unless it’s too close to call.
“That’s going to be our first set of clues to how this may go,” said Drew McCoy, president of the election-reporting service Decision Desk HQ.
In summary: If Kamala Harris wins one of those two southern states, she’s the slight favourite, and if she wins both, she’s the commanding favourite.
If Donald Trump wins both, however, he’s on the cusp of victory. It’s lights out if he then wins Pennsylvania: the 45th president is a near-lock to become the 47th president.
Pennsylvania’s potentially decisive data dump
If Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, “it’s over,” McCoy said. He would hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes, barring a shock event like Harris winning, say, Texas or Florida.
In other words, Pennsylvania becomes the kingmaker. Which brings us to that midnight data dump.
Under a law passed in 2022, Act 88, the state’s 67 counties were offered grant money for new election equipment and staff, but there are strings attached: To get the cash, they have to publish data on the number of outstanding mail ballots.
The mail ballots take longer to process. It requires opening envelopes, checking signatures, confirming the identity of voters, placing ballots in piles, then sliding them into machines.
CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten says he’s never seen a U.S. election race tighter than the one between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
This delays the counting of ballots that tend to skew Democratic, which distorts the early reporting on the election result.
Now all Pennsylvania counties except two tiny ones have agreed to the cash conditions. They must publish the number of mail ballots still uncounted on county websites, no later than 12:01 a.m.
By then, the entire election-watching world can grab the data from a cross-section of counties, from cities, to suburbs, to rural areas; estimate the number of remaining mailed votes per party based on the breakdown so far; and calculate the likely winner.
Results will emerge more slowly in other states.
Some swing states will be slower
In Wisconsin, Milwaukee officials have warned not to expect mail-in ballot results before midnight, as the entire county has 13 machines and is forbidden by law from starting to process these ballots before the morning of election day. McCoy doesn’t expect a clear portrait from Milwaukee until the wee hours — sometime after midnight, probably closer to 4 a.m.
In Michigan, new laws allow earlier handling of mail-in ballots. But the top election official isn’t promising results until the next day. On Face The Nation, Jocelyn Benson said she hopes it’s sooner, but added: “I would estimate end of the day on Wednesday.”
Arizona and Nevada, like many western states, have a long history with voting by mail. But a detail in their laws could delay the result. Both states count mail-in ballots even if they arrive after election day.
In Arizona, they can arrive up to 10 days later. Those late arrivals typically involve a tiny percentage of ballots, but if it’s a close result, it still complicates declaring a winner. A blowout would make a quicker call possible.
Here’s a nightmare scenario for Nevada’s secretary of state: That the election comes down to the six electoral votes in his state, which suffers delays in the counting.
“That is my biggest fear that keeps me up in the middle of the night,” Cisco Aguilar said during an online panel earlier this year. That’s why Nevada implemented reforms aimed at speeding up counting, increasing the chances of a same-day projection.
After the days-long counting drama in 2020, other states also have new laws to speed things up. Like the western states, Michigan and Georgia now allow mail ballots to be opened before election day, so the count goes faster that day.
But similar reforms failed in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those two states have one thing in common: Their Republican-controlled legislatures blocked bills that would allow earlier processing.
Some members of the Pennsylvania legislature expressed frustration in interviews, describing how the House, run by Democrats, passed different pre-processing bills that were left to die in the Republican-controlled Senate.
A top Pennsylvania Democrat said parliamentary rules forbid him from questioning the motives of his adversaries on the legislature floor.
The National breaks down the rise in political polarization in the U.S. and how it fuels voter anxiety. The battle for Nevada’s crucial Latino vote. Plus, About That host, Andrew Chang joins The National to explain the U.S. electoral college.
2020 delays abetted a democracy-straining debacle
But, in his mind, it’s no mystery why Republicans have blocked faster ballot-counts: Because Donald Trump doesn’t want it. Later counting of mailed votes, if they skew Democratic, helps him prematurely declare victory, as he did in 2020.
“It’s the worst possible reason,” said the Democrats’ state House majority leader, Matt Bradford, over a coffee in his area outside Philadelphia.
“It’s pretty clear what this is about. They’re doing the bidding of Donald Trump. They are worried that he will come out against them and say horrible things.”
Pennsylvania’s legislature did pass, with bipartisan votes, the above-mentioned compromise bill that requires the pre-12:01 a.m. publishing of the total number of outstanding mail-in ballots. Which, again, could help project a winner.
The state’s top election official has his own concerns. Al Schmidt, the secretary of state, says these delays are a stress-test for American democracy. In 2020, a multi-day information vacuum became a petri dish for conspiracy theories.
Amid the slow count, protests began, triggering weeks of unrest that culminated in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Schmidt, a Republican, recently told 60 Minutes that those delays are when people start making wild claims “about truckloads of ballots. And that’s when you start hearing about zombie voters and that’s when all this other stuff really starts pouring in.”
“The message is: Please be patient.”
That said, he’s hopeful things will go more smoothly this time, as officials have newer equipment, better training and more experience with mail-in ballots.
It’s a point stressed by Decision Desk HQ’s McCoy, too. He’s optimistic this year will be easier.
After all, four years ago, multiple states were, like Pennsylvania, deploying mail-in ballots for the first time on a massive scale, in a hurry, amid a wave of public-health precautions. They not only have more experience now, but also fewer mail-in ballots to process compared to the pandemic election four years ago. He describes the last election as a perfect storm.
“I think 2020 was so unique simply because of COVID. You know, we’ve had close elections in this country before — 2000 comes to mind. But the confluence of events around … holding a national election in the pandemic, I think, will always set that apart,” McCoy said.
“Hopefully, we won’t ever experience anything like that again.”
Published at Wed, 30 Oct 2024 08:00:00 +0000
At least 95 killed in Spain after devastating floods, mudslides
Flash floods in eastern Spain killed at least 95 people, sweeping away cars, turning village streets into rivers, and disrupting rail lines and highways. It’s the worst natural disaster to hit the European nation in recent memory.
Rainstorms that started Tuesday and continued Wednesday caused flooding across southern and eastern Spain, stretching from Malaga to Valencia. Muddy torrents tumbled vehicles down streets at high speeds, while debris and household items swirled in the water. Police and rescue services used helicopters to lift people from their homes and rubber boats to reach drivers trapped on the roofs of cars.
Emergency services in the eastern region of Valencia confirmed a death toll of 92 people on Wednesday. Another two casualties were reported in the neighbouring Castilla La Mancha region, while southern Andalusia reported one death.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said dozens of towns had been flooded. The federal government said it will declare three days of mourning for the dead, starting on Thursday.
“For those who are looking for their loved ones, all of Spain feels your pain,” Sánchez said in a televised address. “Our priority is to help you. We are putting all the resources necessary so that we can recover from this tragedy.”
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez spoke Wednesday after devastating flooding hit parts of the country, killing at least 72 people. Sanchez said his government is committed to helping people impacted by the floods.
Military helping with disaster response
Authorities reported several missing people late Tuesday, but the following morning brought the shocking announcement of dozens found dead.
“Yesterday was the worst day of my life,” Ricardo Gabaldón, the mayor of Utiel, a town in Valencia, told national broadcaster RTVE.
“We were trapped like rats. Cars and trash containers were flowing down the streets. The water was rising to three metres,” he said.
The mayor said six residents died and more are missing.
Over 1,100 soldiers from Spain’s emergency response units were deployed to the devastated areas. Rescue services were also rushing eastwards from other parts of Spain. Spain’s central government set up a crisis committee to help co-ordinate rescue efforts.
One elderly couple was rescued from the upper story of their house by a military unit using a bulldozer, with three soldiers accompanying them in the huge shovel. Television reports showed videos shot by panicked residents documenting how waters flooded the ground floors of apartments, streams bursting their banks and bridges giving way.
Spain has experienced similar autumn storms in recent years. Nothing, however, compared to the devastation over the last two days.
The death toll could rise with other regions yet to report victims and search efforts continuing in areas with difficult access.
One Valencia town, Paiporta, suffered exceptional loss. Mayor Maribel Albalat told RTVE that over 30 people died in the town of some 25,000 people. Those included six residents of a senior residence. News media broadcast footage of seniors in chairs and wheelchairs at a Paiporta nursing home, some crying out in apparent terror as the water rose over their knees.
“We don’t know what happened, but in 10 minutes the village was overflowing with water,” Albalat said.
Spain is still recovering from a severe drought and continues to register record high temperatures in recent years. Scientists say increased episodes of extreme weather are likely linked to climate change.
‘Everything is a total wreck’
The storms unleashed a freak hailstorm which punched holes in car windows and greenhouses as well as a rarely seen tornado.
As well, a high-speed train with nearly 300 people on board derailed near Malaga, although rail authorities said no one was hurt. High-speed train service between Valencia city and Madrid was interrupted, as were several commuter lines.
Carlos Mazón, president of the Valencia region, urged people to stay at home, with travel by road already difficult due to fallen trees and wrecked vehicles.
“The neighbourhood is destroyed, all the cars are on top of each other, it’s literally smashed up,” Christian Viena, a bar owner in the Valencian village of Barrio de la Torre, said by phone. “Everything is a total wreck, everything is ready to be thrown away. The mud is almost 30 centimetres deep.”
Located south of Barcelona down the Mediterranean coast, Valencia is a tourist destination known for its beaches, citrus orchards, and as the home of Spain’s paella rice dish.
Like some other areas of Spain, Valencia has gorges and small riverbeds that spend much of the year completely dry but quickly fill with water when it rains. Many of them pass through populated areas. The rain had subsided in Valencia by late Wednesday morning.
Spain’s national weather service said it rained more in eight hours in Valencia than it had in the preceding 20 months, calling the deluge “extraordinary.”
Published at Wed, 30 Oct 2024 12:52:26 +0000
